Perhaps his clearest insight was his comments that if there is a hard landing, will we finally allow for capitalism to do its thing and for there to be destruction of companies. The problem is we are either going to cut them now or we’re going to cut them later,” and later would be a lot more expensive. ![]() It is a lie and it is a fantasy to say we don’t have to cut entitlements. “We are absolutely going to cut entitlements in this country. Specifically, the billionaire asset manager warns that the debt-limit debate misses the bigger issue with US government spending. “Just make sure to preserve your capital until they present themselves,” he says.ĭruckenmiller says the debt ceiling debate is “depressing,” and he thinks a technical default would be “stupid” and a market event. When I looked at the fiscal 's hard for me to envision stocks being higher in 10 years"īut he believes a hard landing will create unbelievable opportunities for long/short managers. When I look at margins as high as they are. "When I look at the market at 20X earnings. “If I liked the stock market, I would be exposed to it, and I’m not exposed to it.” My firm has only been able to participate in Al by owning Nvidia and Microsoft."ĪI could be as impactful productivity-wise as the PC, he says.ĭruckenmiller says he’s not positive on the stock market. "I actually think there is a very very real possibility and could be every bit as impactful as the internet literally going forward.Īnd it could be a beautiful opportunity in a hard landing, just like in 01, 02 were a beautiful opportunity when the tech bubble burst, going forward for companies who have benefited from the internet, Al could be there. I could change my mind in a week or two folks"ĭruckenmiller says the “AI thing” is real and has the potential to be just as transformational as the internet. I'm betting for the time being against the history of silver and gold in hard landings. Again, he says a hard landing is not a foregone conclusion. But coming out of a hard-landing scenario, he says it’ll be a huge beneficiary of the EV boom. It’s part of his “matrix” but not his forecast, adding that he doesn’t want to see headlines that he’s predicting a 2008-style crash.įor a start, Druckenmiller says he sees no “fat pitches” now, noting that Treasuries are off the table, and he is short the dollar, though it isn’t a “massive” position.ĭruckenmiller says copper is in the “tightest position” compared with any environment he’s ever studied.ĭruckenmiller says he’s afraid to have a position in copper during a hard landing. First of all, those who are saying it, I don't remember them predicting in 2007 what was ahead of them & I don't remember people saying the banking system was that weak going in." "This constant repeating that this looks like nothing like '08 or '07. “It’s naïve not to be open-minded to something really bad happening,” Druckenmiller says. “I don’t know that, but I do this for a living and I’ve got to have a forecast,” he says.ĭruckenmiller took a shot at the talking heads endlessly repeating that this is nothing like 2008, pointing out that he doesn’t remember them predicting the crash then either. He added that he wouldn’t be surprised if the “bean counters” a year from now find that the recession started in the second quarter. “It’s a scary cocktail that we’re being presented with.” ![]() “We wasted all our bullets” in an economic expansion, he said, worrying about the fiscal situation. Obviously the regional banks recently, we had Bed Bath and Beyond.īut I would assume there's a lot more bodies coming." So there's stuff under the hood, it's starting to emerge. When you have free money for 11 years, people do really stupid things. ".when you have free money, people do stupid things. He noted that there have only been a few soft landings since 1950, and the odds of that happening are tough, highlighting Bed Bath & Beyond’s bankruptcy and warning that there could be more to come (specifically mentioning the struggles in the CRE space and that regional banks are a big lender to the space. Druckenmiller has been a big critic of what he calls the Fed’s too-easy monetary policy and continued that today.
0 Comments
Leave a Reply. |
AuthorWrite something about yourself. No need to be fancy, just an overview. ArchivesCategories |